Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
