Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The typical count of per-day killings each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh government figures. But, security specialists have cautioned that murder numbers could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded over these past months is extremely notable,” the President stated, explaining that last month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly military operations to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the US. However, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her national security approach for an apparently steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that using murder statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the will to accurately identify and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it might hide periods when there were especially elevated levels of murders.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas concluded.